In just three months, the Trump administration has led the US economy to the precipice of disaster. With misguided and oftentimes incoherent policies surrounding international trade, America’s relationship with the rest of the world has been tarnished, possibly in a manner that cannot be rectified with a simple rollback of the proposed tariffs. Although the United States may be able to weather a standoff with Europe and other countries that rely on US imports of their goods, the situation with China is entirely different.
Trump’s stance and approach towards ‘negotiating’ trade deals with Xi Jinping make it clear that the president not only fails to understand the gravity of the situation, but has grossly underestimated his adversary. Constant concessions and clear signs of fear from his administration have painted Trump as weak and uncertain, and have left Xi to exercise China’s dominance on the world stage.
All signs point to the fact that Trump has undoubtedly propelled the United States into an unnecessary conflict that calls into question the ability of this administration to navigate international relations, and to steward America’s influence across the globe. Without serious reform or successful negotiations, the United States, its economy, and its citizens may soon find themselves at the point of no return.
The Art of War
Even in the midst of fiery rhetoric from the Trump administration, Xi and his party have remained relatively silent. In fact, reports have been released that the Trump administration has reached out to China to facilitate negotiations, to no avail. In response, the Trump administration has only escalated tensions, increasing tariffs on China from the initial 10% to a staggering 245%, resulting in Beijing stating that these numbers are ‘meaningless.’ Although Trump touts his abilities as a master negotiator, ever-present capriciousness and a clear lack of strategy have detracted from the strongman image that the president struggles to project. After Trump announced the sweeping tariffs on the White House Lawn, markets crashed, and the reality became clear - Trump and his cronies still don’t understand trade deficits or the damaging effects of tariffs, and the numbers were determined by nonsensical, erroneous formulas. These ludicrous measures have been described by Jeremy Seigel, Professor Emeritus of the prestigious Wharton School, as ‘the biggest policy mistake in 95 years.’
It is no secret that Trump is a poor student of history, even claiming that he has potentially done more for the Black community in the United States than the Great Emancipator, Abraham Lincoln. Perhaps it would serve the president well to do a bit of research on the history of China, especially The Art of War, the preeminent collection of the principles that ensure victory in battle by the renowned Chinese general, Sun Tzu. It appears that Xi and the CCP have applied a key lesson espoused by Tzu - never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. China has been content to watch as Trump has crashed the market, sown uncertainty, and broken decades-long alliances with key trading partners. More than that, the world’s manufacturing powerhouse and second-largest economy has already made strategic advances, including cutting imports of beef and soybeans (which amount to the largest portion of agricultural products exported to China from the US), and canceling deals with Boeing to purchase commercial jets. None of this bodes well for the United States, or its future.
It is not only dollars and cents that comprise the failures of Trump’s deal-making abilities, but also the ceding of so-called ‘soft power’ to China. With the defunding of USAID, and the antagonistic nature of the current administration’s policies on trade, Xi has wasted no time in stepping in to fill the void, including his recent strengthening of relations with nations from ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations). Key partners increasingly view the United States as unstable, and even the strongest of its allies have begun to turn their backs on Trump, including Canada, which has announced its intention to step into a leadership role.
The sheer ineptitude of Trump and his administration has done irreparable damage to the image of the United States, and serves to cripple its economic prospects and raise prices on its citizens for the foreseeable future. It appears that Trump has overlooked yet another lesson from The Art of War that China evidently understands - ‘If ignorant both of your enemy and yourself, you are certain to be in peril.‘
A Difference in Mentality
It appears that Trump also lacks clarity on another key differentiator between the United States and China - governance. China and its Communist Party are effectively immune from the dissatisfaction and dissent of Chinese citizens, as their authoritarian style of government suppresses rebellion to devastating effect. However, in a representative democracy like the United States, it is voters that hold the ultimate power in determining the fate of their leaders.
In recent weeks, Republican leaders have voiced concerns about the coming midterm elections, in which the economy will continue to be a key issue for voters. If Trump fails to deliver on his promises of unprecedented prosperity for American citizens, which is all but a certainty at this moment in time, then there is little to suggest that Republicans will hold onto their majorities.
Even more than the reduction of influence that Republicans now enjoy in Congress and the House, leaders within the party should also be wary of a third attempt at impeachment led by the Democrats, with opposition leaders already moving to introduce Articles of Impeachment in the coming weeks. With the countless transgressions of the administration against the rule of law, and a looming constitutional crisis, the third time might just be the charm for Dems looking to remove Trump from office.
More than anything, it is clear that China is better suited to a war of attrition than the United States. Without the threat of rebellion, Xi and the CCP stand ready to endure the short-term pain that tariffs from the United States will inflict on their economy, and are already taking advantage of the chaos to strengthen existing partnerships, and forge new ones. American citizens, however, appear decidedly unprepared for the economic hardships that Trump’s policies promise, with researchers from Yale proposing that tariffs could cost average Americans nearly $5,000 annually. This, coupled with the existential threats that American households already face, including record levels of debt, stagnant wages, and more, spells certain disaster, and has already driven millions to protest, in the streets and in town halls. To learn more about the true state of the American economy, check out my article here.
In assessing the fallout from a war between the world’s leading economies, we can once again rely on the wisdom of Sun Tzu - “There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare.” Each day that passes without a clear resolution on tariffs serves to further weaken the US economy at a time when global trade is rapidly evolving, and propels Americans closer to stepping in to dump Trump and his foolish policies, once and for all.
